There are many different opinions and predictions vis-à-vis the pandemic-based economic recovery. Here, we take a look at a few of them:
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said:
“The V-shaped recovery in real GDP will remain V-shaped during the first half of this year and probably through the end of the year. However, it will no longer be a ‘recovery’ beyond Q1 because real GDP will have fully recovered during the current quarter. Thereafter, GDP will be in an ‘expansion’ in record-high territory.”
John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve said:
“With strong federal fiscal support and continued progress on vaccination, GDP growth this year could be the strongest we’ve seen in decades.”
According to Natixis US Economist, Troy Ludtka:
“The most glaring issue with where we stand now has to be the labor market. We still have [nearly] 10 million jobs which are just simply missing.You’re going to see a situation in the coming years, looking back to this moment, where official statistics on things like food insecurity, poverty and inequality are going to reach generational highs.”
RSM Chief Economist, Joseph Brusuelas said:
“You’re going to see the growth rates in the middle of the year probably close to 9%. That’s how strong the reopening of the U.S. economy will be vis-a-vis the release of pent-up demand by the household sector. I don’t expect the pent-up demand to all be released this year. I’m expecting it to take about two years to do that, primarily because households will be somewhat cautious about the release of cash.”
Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve senses that the pandemic’s economic recovery has actually “progressed more quickly than generally expected and looks to be strengthening but that those sectors that were hardest hit] remain weak [and that unemployment numbers actually] underestimate the shortfall, [implying that there is still a long way to go for economic recovery.]”
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly where the recovery will end up but for now there is room for optimism within a wider framework of understanding the severity of what the pandemic has created for many people, financially.
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